Rihanna nnmah nm ( nma m ) ( nmam ),
there is a tendency
here in Nigeria
for some advocates of war against Niger Republic
by ECOWAS troops including Nigeria troops
to think that
the actual physical theatre of that war
and
the area of related collateral damage
will be restricted to
Niger Republic and Northern Nigeria
and that
physical damage to any parts of Nigeria occasioned by that war
will not extend
to Southern Nigeria
and
definitely will not extend to Lagos, Yoruba-land, Nigeria
or
to any other parts of Yoruba-land, Nigeria.
such pundits for war
should realise that
this war
will be an international war
ostensibly in the
Niger Republic area which has extensive land borders with Northern Nigeria
and
which will involve Niger
( with the support of Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso … and Russia ? )
defending itself from
ECOWAS troops including Nigeria troops
and as
well trained, competent soldiers, air force personnel, etc
striking back
at ECOWAS troops including Nigeria troops
and
possibly also at
some or all of those other countries in West[ern] Africa
whose armed forces personnel
constitute
the ECOWAS troops.
the rumours are that the Wagner Group fighters are already on ground in Niger.
it is therefore likely that Niger intends to fight a strategic war within and with the resources available to it.
in the event of a strategic war to cripple the capacity of Nigeria,
in particular
as a leading member of ECOWAS,
to contribute to
the effort to wage war against Niger Republic,
target areas in Nigeria
for strikes by Niger Republic armed forces personnel
will probably include
Abuja, Nigeria’s Federal Capital
which is in the Northern Nigeria area
and
will also most likely definitely include Lagos, Yoruba-land, South-Western Nigeria
which is an economic engine in and for Nigeria.
it is not unlikely that
a brilliant military strategist
fighting for and on the side of Niger Republic
in a war against
Nigeria and some other ECOWAS members
and who possesses the warfare capability to
launch and effect
sea linked strikes
air linked strikes
land linked strikes
against the
capacity and capability
of
Lagos, Yoruba-land, South-Western Nigeria
to contribute as an economic engine and as a key strategic component
for
Nigeria’s contribution to the effort to wage war against Niger Republic
will
strike key strategic investments and key economic investments in Lagos
including, for example,
the newly commissioned Dangote Petroleum Refinery
( built at a cost of over 1 billion United States Dollars )
and
Petrol / Gasoline Tank Farms in the Lagos area
amidst other sensitive and valuable installations
places like
Port Harcourt and Warri and Eket?
in South-South Nigeria
will also
very likely be target areas
for strikes
by Niger Armed Forces personnel
because of
their ( historical and continuing ) role as
sources of oil and gas revenue money for Nigeria
.. and therefore ..
as areas that essentially generate a huge component of the revenue money
with which Nigeria is contributing to the war effort.
according to beer parlour patronisers
who perhaps under the influence of more beer than is good for them
claim to be seasoned experts in matters of
International Affairs
and
International Politics,
Russia is likely to support Niger Republic
which has .
. according to rumours ..
already asked Russia to build a nuclear plant to generate electricity in Niger Republic.
it would appear that
even to many of such self-acclaimed gurus of International Affairs and International Politics
it is seemingly not clear
if
USA and France will defend Nigeria territory
especially from air strikes, for example,
powered by Russia
targeting
Abuja, Lagos, Port Harcourt, Warri, etc.
Rihanna nnkeh nm ( nkeh m ) ( nke m ) ( nkem ),
it is true that
unlike Benin Republic,
Niger Republic does not have
a native Yoruba population
with historical and ancestral links to Yoruba-land, South-Western Nigeria.
however,
it is also true that
Niger Republic has
an hausa language speaking population
with historical and ancestral? links to Northern Nigeria.
thus,
in the same way that
i.e to say
in a simillar manner to the way in/by which
many in Benin Republic and South-Western Nigeria are linked
so also are
many in Niger and Northern Nigeria linked.
Rihanna ormahleechar nm ( omalicha m ) ( omalicham ),
Nigeria is an economic power house to ECOWAS and to ECOWAS troops.
therefore, any military strategist(s) who want(s) to cripple the ECOWAS war efforts
will necessarily target Nigeria
if he/she/they has/have the capability to do so.
also, it should not be forgotten that
Russia’s nord stream gas pipeline
through which
it earned revenue money
by supplying gas to Europe
was blown up
and
that there is a plan by USA, etc to
pipe gas
all the extensive extremely huge distance from
Warri in Delta State
through Niger Republic in West[ern] Africa
and
Algeria in Arab North[ern] Africa
to Europe.
it is not to be un-expected that
from the view-point of
Russia’s destroyed nord stream gas pipe-line
and
the linked resultant loss of revenue money,
Russia will likely prevent this pipeline from becoming a reality
if it is possible for Russia to so.
it is very clear to all the world that
Russia has superior air, land and sea warfare capability
like other nuclear powers ( e.g USA )
and
therefore that
if Russia war forces operate from Niger Republic,
the possibility of Russia air force strikes
against
Abuja, Lagos, Port Harcourt, Warri, etc
can not be ruled out.
Rihanna ohbee nm ( obi nm ) ( obi m ) ( obim ),
by any stretch of the imagination
linked to permutations, forecasts, projections and predictions
arising from the variables linkable to this war,
this war,
if it comes to pass
if it comes to be
will not be
a Biafra War
against a Biafra people who have little or no arms and ammunition to defend it’s territory
nor
any real war support from any country in Europe.
this is self-evident because
unlike Biafra
Niger Republic military has some fair quantity of arms and ammunition.
and
so also does
Mali,
Guinea,
Burkina Faso
unlike the then Biafra
which it took a fully armed Nigeria
backed by support by and from countries like Niger Republic then
and
further superior support in terms of arms and ammunition
by and from countries like Britain, Russia, etc then
3 whole years to defeat.
also,
Niger Republic is likely to have support from Russia
unlike Biafra
which had no support from Britain, USA, France, Russia then.
Rihanna nm,
i am not sure that
there is any value in pointing out repeatedly to
the perceptive mind and/or the prescient mind that
unlike
the Biafra War which was restricted completely
to the Biafra Area
and
did not extend to
Yoruba-land, South-Western Nigeria
nor to
Northern Nigeria
this particular war
if it comes to pass
if it comes to be
will
extend to
Niger Republic’s immediately neighboring areas of Northern Nigeria
which
Niger Republic military may seek to over-run and annex or capture
and to
the parts of Yoruba-land, South-Western Nigeria
which constitute an economic engine
and
a key component
to and for
Nigeria’s overall money revenue
.. and therefore also ..
to and for
Nigeria’s contribution to the effort to wage war against Niger Republic
e.g
Lagos State ( industries, companies, oil and gas )
Ogun State ( industries, companies )
Ondo State ( oil and gas )
as well as to
other parts of Nigeria e.g South-South Nigeria,
for example,
places like
Port Harcourt, Rivers State
Warri, Delta State
Eket?, Akwa Ibom State?
because of
their ( historical and continuing ) role as
sources of oil and gas revenue money for Nigeria
.. and therefore ..
of their role as
areas that generate a huge component of the revenue money
with which Nigeria is contributing to the war effort.
so, really,
Rihanna ardah arnyih jee ar-mah ar-tuh
Rihanna ada anyi ji ama atu
very politely
and
with all due respect to everyone
and
with all due respect to the
sentiments,
feelings,
pains,
positions,
stands,
integrity,
dignity,
perception of his/her/their public image,
ego,
personal nexus to the scenario at hand
of everyone
it is a view that
if it is possible for Nigeria and ECOWAS to avoid this war,
Nigeria and ECOWAS should
totally and completely avoid this war.
Rihanna nnkeh nm ohfoo sorr-sorr,
Rihanna nkem ofu soso,
i remain,
as always,
yours truly,
Sam
█ P.S :
(1) ECOWAS = Economic Community Of West African States
(2) Niger = a country in West Africa and a member of ECOWAS
(3) ECOMOG = ECOWAS Peace Monitoring Group ( .. a military formation composed of Armed Forces personnel drawn from member states of the Economic Community Of West African States )
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