for one thing
it would seem that
Mr. Peter Obi is running
in an environment
where there have been observed patterns of
? TRIBAL VOTING i.e TRIBE BASED VOTER DECISIONS
and for another
Mr. Peter Obi is running
in an environment
where there have been observed patterns of
? RELIGION VOTING i.e RELIGION BASED VOTER DECISIONS
if one looks at
THE PATTERNS OF THINGS IN NIGERIA IN POLITICS
for example
one will observe that
?? ?? ?? in 1979
? the igbo/ibo tribe
voted hugely for
the igbo/ibo tribe DR. ( CHIEF ) NNAMDI AZIKIWE
? the yoruba tribe
voted hugely for
the yoruba tribe CHIEF OBAFEMI AWOLOWO
? the hausa tribe
voted hugely for
the fulani tribe ALHAJI SHEHU SHAGARI
? the fulani tribe
voted hugely for
the fulani tribe ALHAJI SHEHU SHAGARI
those who understand the Geographical Terrain of Nigeria
will tell you that
broadly speaking
Nigeria
is made up of
Southern Nigeria
and
Northern Nigeria
and that
? the hausa tribe
? the fulani tribe
? and some other tribes
are
geographically located .. predominantly .. in Northern Nigeria
? the yoruba tribe
? and some other tribes
are
geographically located .. predominantly .. in South-Western Nigeria
? the igbo tribe
? and some other tribes
are
geographically located .. predominantly .. in South-Eastern Nigeria
so an observation from the 1979 Presidential Elections is that
? there was a Presidential Candidate
( ALHAJI SHEHU SHAGARI )
from Northern Nigeria
?️ which is the Geographical Area of Nigeria
where the fulani tribe
of the fulani tribe ALHAJI SHEHU SHAGARI
is geographically located .. predominantly
?️ and which is also the Geographical Area of Nigeria
where the peoples of Nigeria who speak the hausa language
generally as a first tongue or second tongue
( and maybe in some instances as a third? tongue )
and
the hausa tribe themselves
are geographically located .. predominantly
and that
? the peoples of the fulani tribe
from which
ALHAJI SHEHU SHAGARI himself
hailed from
? the peoples of the hausa tribe of Northern Nigeria
from which
Geographical Region
ALHAJI SHEHU SHAGARI himself
hailed from
? the peoples of the Northern Region of Nigeria
from which
Geographical Area of Nigeria
ALHAJI SHEHU SHAGARI himself
hailed from
voted hugely for ALHAJI SHEHU SHAGARI
i.e
they voted hugely for
? someone of their own tribe
? someone of a tribe comparatively near their own tribe in terms of
geographical vicinity and geographical proximity
? someone of their own Geographical Region of Nigeria
? someone who spoke the hausa language
as a first? tongue or second? tongue
( and maybe in some instances as a third? tongue )
just like they themselves
when they could have
.. if they had wished to do so ..
voted hugely INSTEAD FOR
? someone of a tribe
CLEARLY DIFFERENT from their own tribe
e.g
the yoruba tribe ( CHIEF OBAFEMI AWOLOWO )
or
the igbo/ibo tribe ( CHIEF [DR.] NNAMDI AZIKIWE )
? someone of a tribe
CLEARLY DISTINCT from their own tribe
e.g
the yoruba tribe. ( CHIEF OBAFEMI AWOLOWO ).
or
the igbo/ibo tribe. ( CHIEF [DR.] NNAMDI AZIKIWE ).
? someone of a tribe comparatively FAR AWAY FROM their own tribe in terms of
geographical vicinity and geographical proximity
e.g
the Igbo/Ibo tribe. ( CHIEF [DR.] NNAMDI AZIKIWE ).
or
the yoruba tribe. ( CHIEF OBAFEMI AWOLOWO ).
? someone of a REGION OTHER THAN their own Geographical Region of Nigeria
e.g
the SOUTH EASTERN REGION. ( CHIEF [DR.] NNAMDI AZIKIWE ).
or
the SOUTH WESTERN REGION. ( CHIEF OBAFEMI AWOLOWO ).
? someone FROM A PEOPLES WHO GENERALLY DO NOT SPEAK
the hausa language
as a first? tongue or second? tongue
( and maybe in some instances as a third? tongue )
UNLIKE they themselves
? there was a Presidential Candidate
( CHIEF OBAFEMI AWOLOWO )
from South-Western Nigeria
?️ which is the Geographical Area of Nigeria
where the yoruba tribe
of the yoruba tribe CHIEF OBAFEMI AWOLOWO
is geographically located .. predominantly
?️ and which is also the Geographical Area of Nigeria
where the peoples of Nigeria who speak the yoruba language
generally as a first tongue or second tongue
( and maybe in some instances as a third? tongue )
and
the yoruba tribe themselves
are geographically located .. predominantly
and that
? the peoples of the yoruba tribe
from which
CHIEF OBAFEMI AWOLOWO himself
hailed from
? the peoples of the yoruba tribe of South-Western Nigeria
from which
Geographical Region
CHIEF OBAFEMI AWOLOWO himself
hailed from
? the peoples of the South-Western Region of Nigeria
from which
Geographical Area of Nigeria
CHIEF OBAFEMI AWOLOWO himself
hailed from
voted hugely for CHIEF OBAFEMI AWOLOWO
i.e
they voted hugely for
? someone of their own tribe
? someone of a tribe comparatively near their own tribe in terms of
geographical vicinity and geographical proximity
? someone of their own Geographical Region of Nigeria
? someone who spoke the yoruba language
as a first? tongue or second? tongue
( and maybe in some instances as a third? tongue )
just like they themselves
when they could have
.. if they had wished to do so ..
voted hugely INSTEAD FOR
? someone of a tribe
CLEARLY DIFFERENT from their own tribe
e.g
the fulani tribe ( ALHAJI SHEHU SHAGARI )
or
the igbo/ibo tribe ( CHIEF [DR.] NNAMDI AZIKIWE )
? someone of a tribe
CLEARLY DISTINCT from their own tribe
e.g
the fulani tribe. ( ALHAJI SHEHU SHAGARI ).
or
the igbo/ibo tribe. ( CHIEF [DR.] NNAMDI AZIKIWE ).
? someone of a tribe comparatively FAR AWAY FROM their own tribe in terms of
geographical vicinity and geographical proximity
e.g
the igbo/ibo tribe. ( CHIEF [DR.] NNAMDI AZIKIWE ).
or
the fulani tribe. ( ALHAJI SHEHU SHAGARI ).
? someone of a REGION OTHER THAN their own Geographical Region of Nigeria
e.g
the SOUTH EASTERN REGION. ( CHIEF [DR.] NNAMDI AZIKIWE ).
or
the NORTHERN REGION. ( ALHAJI SHEHU SHAGARI ).
? someone FROM A PEOPLES WHO GENERALLY DO NOT SPEAK
the yoruba language
as a first? tongue or second? tongue
( and maybe in some instances as a third? tongue )
UNLIKE they themselves
? there was a Presidential Candidate
( CHIEF [DR.] NNAMDI AZIKIWE )
from South-Eastern Nigeria
?️ which is the Geographical Area of Nigeria
where the igbo/ibo tribe
of the igbo/ibo tribe CHIEF [DR.] NNAMDI AZIKIWE
is geographically located .. predominantly
?️ and which is also the Geographical Area of Nigeria
where the peoples of Nigeria who speak the igbo/ibo language
generally as a first tongue or second tongue
( and maybe in some instances as a third? tongue )
and
the igbo/ibo tribe themselves
are geographically located .. predominantly
and that
? the peoples of the igbo/ibo tribe
from which
CHIEF [DR.] NNAMDI AZIKIWE himself
hailed from
? the peoples of the Igbo/Ibo tribe of South-Eastern Nigeria
from which
Geographical Region
CHIEF [DR.] NNAMDI AZIKIWE himself
hailed from
? the peoples of the South-Eastern Region of Nigeria
from which
Geographical Area of Nigeria
CHIEF [DR.] NNAMDI AZIKIWE himself
hailed from
voted hugely for CHIEF [DR.] NNAMDI AZIKIWE
i.e
they voted hugely for
? someone of their own tribe
? someone of a tribe comparatively near their own tribe in terms of
geographical vicinity and geographical proximity
? someone of their own Geographical Region of Nigeria
? someone who spoke the Igbo/Ibo language
as a first? tongue or second? tongue
( and maybe in some instances as a third? tongue )
just like they themselves
when they could have
.. if they had wished to do so ..
voted hugely INSTEAD FOR
? someone of a tribe
CLEARLY DIFFERENT from their own tribe
e.g
the fulani tribe ( ALHAJI SHEHU SHAGARI )
or
the yoruba tribe ( CHIEF OBAFEMI AWOLOWO )
? someone of a tribe
CLEARLY DISTINCT from their own tribe
e.g
the fulani tribe. ( ALHAJI SHEHU SHAGARI ).
or
the yoruba tribe. ( CHIEF OBAFEMI AWOLOWO ).
? someone of a tribe comparatively FAR AWAY FROM their own tribe in terms of
geographical vicinity and geographical proximity
e.g
the fulani tribe. ( ALHAJI SHEHU SHAGARI ).
or
the yoruba tribe. ( CHIEF OBAFEMI AWOLOWO ).
? someone of a REGION OTHER THAN their own Geographical Region of Nigeria
e.g
the SOUTH WESTERN REGION. ( CHIEF OBAFEMI AWOLOWO ).
or
the NORTHERN REGION. ( ALHAJI SHEHU SHAGARI ).
? someone FROM A PEOPLES WHO GENERALLY DO NOT SPEAK
the Igbo/Ibo language
as a first? tongue or second? tongue
( and maybe in some instances as a third? tongue )
UNLIKE they themselves
if this sort of TRIBAL VOTING i.e TRIBE BASED VOTER DECISIONS
had occurred only once
.. say in 1979? ..
then one may say it is not
STANDARD PROCEEDURE
STANDARD PRACTICE
THE NORM
THE USUAL RUN OF THINGS
however,
a look at the 1959? Elections
– – – 20 years before the 1979 Elections – – –
in fact shows that
?? ?? ?? in 1959?
? the igbo/ibo tribe
voted hugely for
the igbo/ibo tribe DR. ( CHIEF ) NNAMDI AZIKIWE
then running for
the office of the Prime Minister of Nigeria
on the aegis of a political party called the
NATIONAL COUNCIL OF NIGERIA CITIZENS ( NCNC ).
[ in 1979
the igbo/ibo tribe DR. ( CHIEF ) NNAMDI AZIKIWE
had run for
the office of the President of Nigeria
on the aegis of a political party called the
NIGERIA PEOPLES PARTY ( NPP ). ]
? the yoruba tribe
voted hugely for
the yoruba tribe CHIEF OBAFEMI AWOLOWO
then running for
the office of the Prime Minister of Nigeria
on the aegis of a political party called the
ACTION GROUP ( AG ).
[ in 1979
the yoruba tribe CHIEF OBAFEMI AWOLOWO
had run for
the office of the President of Nigeria
on the aegis of a political party called the
UNITY PARTY OF NIGERIA ( UPN ). ]
? the hausa tribe
voted hugely for
the fulani tribe ALHAJI (SIR) ABUBAKAR TAFEWA BALEWA
? the fulani tribe
voted hugely for
the fulani tribe ALHAJI (SIR) ABUBAKAR TAFEWA BALEWA
then running for
the office of the Prime Minister of Nigeria
on the aegis of a political party called the
NORTHERN PEOPLES CONGRESS ( NPC ).
[ in 1966
the fulani tribe ALHAJI (SIR) ABUBAKAR TAFEWA BALEWA died. ]
[ in 1979
the fulani tribe ALHAJI SHEHU SHAGARI
had run for
the office of the President of Nigeria
on the aegis of a political party called the
NATIONAL PARTY OF NIGERIA ( NPN ). ]
this sort of
TRIBAL VOTING i.e TRIBE BASED VOTER DECISIONS
seems to be
THE PATTERNS OF THINGS IN NIGERIA IN POLITICS
and
seems to be
WITHOUT DOUBT
the
STANDARD PROCEEDURE
STANDARD PRACTICE
THE NORM
THE USUAL RUN OF THINGS
in Nigeria
in Nigeria Politics
the ONLY EXCEPTIONS being perhaps
the 1993 Elections
which it has been rumoured that
the yoruba tribe
ALHAJI M.K.O ABIOLA
won.
concerning these 1993 Elections,
it may be recalled that,
amongst other happenstances
the election results were annulled
the yoruba tribe ALHAJI M.K.O ABIOLA who won? the elections
was thrown into jail
the Northern Nigeria origins Military President of Nigeria
at the times the elections were held, viz :
GENERAL IBRAHIM BADAMASI BABANGIDA
was removed from office
and eventually
the fulani tribe GENERAL SANNI ABACHA
became
the Ruler of Nigeria
after a short period during which
the yoruba tribe CHIEF ERNEST SHONEKAN
had headed an INTERIM NATIONAL GOVERNMENT.
i am not at all sure that it is the wish of everyone
for the negative? events in these sorts of events
to happen again.
the 1999? Elections
which
the yoruba tribe
CHIEF ( and ARMY GENERAL ) OLUSEGUN OBASANJO
won.
concerning these 1999? Elections,
it may be recalled that,
amongst other happenstances
the then
retired yoruba tribe GENERAL OLUSEGUN OBASANJO
had being thrown into jail
during the administration of the Government of Nigeria headed by
the fulani tribe GENERAL SANNI ABACHA
as the Ruler of Nigeria.
the Northern Nigeria origins GENERAL ABDULSALAMI ABUBAKAR
had emerged as
Military Ruler of Nigeria
after the death of GENERAL SANNI ABACHA
and
it was during the administration of the Government of Nigeria headed by
the Northern Nigeria origins GENERAL ABDULSALAMI ABUBAKAR
as the Ruler of Nigeria
that
GENERAL OLUSEGUN OBASANJO was freed from prison
and
contested .. as a civilian? .. for
the office of the President of Nigeria
on the aegis of a political party called the
PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC PARTY ( PDP ).
i am not at all sure that it is the wish of everyone
for the negative? events in these sorts of events
to happen again.
as at date
it is already OCTOBER 2022
and
it would seem that
the Political Players of Nigeria have swung into gear
regarding the proposed 2023 Elections.
pertaining to the efforts of Mr. Peter Obi
to achieve the office of
civilian democratically elected President of Nigeria
in 2023
a question is :
are the Nigeria Voters going to do away with
the already existing patterns of
TRIBAL VOTING i.e TRIBE BASED VOTER DECISIONS ?
i.e
are the Nigeria Voters going to do away with
the already existing patterns of
VOTING FOR SOMEONE BECAUSE HE IS FROM YOUR OWN TRIBE ?
or
BECAUSE HE IS FROM A TRIBE THAT HAS
GREATER GEOGRAPHICAL PROXIMITY TO YOUR OWN TRIBE ?
these sort of questions seem to require to be answered by Nigeria Voters
as the
Presidential Candidates that have emerged number three (3) Candidates
with one (1) candidate each from :
NORTHERN NIGERIA
SOUTH-WESTERN NIGERIA
SOUTH-EASTERN NIGERIA
ALHAJI ATIKU ABUBAKAR
is from the kanuri tribe
of NORTHERN NIGERIA
and is running for
the office of the President of Nigeria come 2023
on the aegis of a political party called the
PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC PARTY ( PDP ).
CHIEF ( ASIWAJU ) ( ALHAJI? ) AKHMED BOLA TINUBU
is from the yoruba tribe
of SOUTH-WESTERN NIGERIA
and is running for
the office of the President of Nigeria come 2023
on the aegis of a political party called the
ALL PROGRESSIVES CONGRESS ( APC ).
MR. PETER OBI
is from the igbo/ibo tribe
of SOUTH-EASTERN NIGERIA
and is running for
the office of the President of Nigeria come 2023
on the aegis of a political party called the
LABOUR PARTY ( LP ).
and so
come 2023
? are the peoples of the Northern Region of Nigeria
from which
Geographical Area of Nigeria
ALHAJI ATIKU ABUBAKAR himself
hails from
not going to vote hugely for him ?
? are the peoples of the South-Western Region of Nigeria
from which
Geographical Area of Nigeria
CHIEF ( ASIWAJU ) ( ALHAJI? ) AKHMED BOLA TINUBU himself
hails from
not going to vote hugely for him ?
? are the peoples of the South-Eastern Region of Nigeria
from which
Geographical Area of Nigeria
MR. PETER OBI himself
hails from
not going to vote hugely for him ?
perhaps the reader of this may find it will be interesting
to see how the 2023 Presidential Elections
may turn out for Mr. Peter Obi
if
? ? the peoples of the Northern Region of Nigeria
from which
Geographical Area of Nigeria
ALHAJI ATIKU ABUBAKAR himself
hails from
vote hugely for ALHAJI ATIKU ABUBAKAR
and
do not vote
in high numbers for either
the South-Western Nigeria origins
CHIEF ( ASIWAJU ) ( ALHAJI? ) AKHMED BOLA TINUBU
or
the South-Eastern Nigeria origins
MR. PETER OBI
? ? the peoples of the South-Western Region of Nigeria
from which
Geographical Area of Nigeria
CHIEF ( ASIWAJU ) ( ALHAJI? ) AKHMED BOLA TINUBU himself
hails from
vote hugely for CHIEF ( ASIWAJU ) ( ALHAJI? ) AKHMED BOLA TINUBU
and
do not vote
in high numbers for either
the Northern Nigeria origins
ALHAJI ATIKU ABUBAKAR
or
the South-Eastern Nigeria origins
MR. PETER OBI
? ? the peoples of the South-Eastern Region of Nigeria
from which
Geographical Area of Nigeria
MR. PETER OBI himself
hails from
vote hugely for MR. PETER OBI
and
do not vote
in high numbers for either
the South-Western Nigeria origins
CHIEF ( ASIWAJU ) ( ALHAJI? ) AKHMED BOLA TINUBU
or
the Northern Nigeria origins
ALHAJI ATIKU ABUBAKAR
what might be the possible permutations
in that sort of scenario ?
[ TO BE CONTINUED ]
