Rihanna ohbee nm ( obi nm ) ( obi m ) ( obim ),
taking a position
derivative from the substance of one or two happenstances in the Nigeria public space
it would seem that
folks who have an overall track record of generally being able to achieve definitive results
at objectives / targets / assessments / endeavours
that they set themselves to
or
agree to take on
should be conscious to be cautious that there might just be one endeavour or two out there
that may dent? their usual? “fantastic high result in flying colours” circumstance.
with all due respect, a paradigm examplar of this veracity? is the instance of
His Excellency, Barrister Bola Ige ( late i.e deceased )
who had high success
at endeavours
that
he set to or
agreed to set to
exemplified for example in
his achieving
the high positions of
■ Governor of Oyo State, Nigeria
and
■ Attorney-General?,
■ etc
this learned, erudite, highly intellectual gentleman
was appointed as
a Federal Minister in charge of the Nigeria ( Federal ) Ministry that handles electricity
( back in the day then called the Ministry of Mines and Power ?? )
during the second tenure of
His Excellency Chief General ( rtd ) Olusegun Obasanjo as Ruler of Nigeria
i.e
during the 1999 – 2007 civilian democratically elected Presidency of
Chief Obasanjo.
it is rumoured that he made a statement
either upon assuming office
or
before assuming office
to the effect
that
he would sort out the Nigeria electricity problem within i.e in “six months”.
Given his track record of high performance,
Nigeria,
Nigeria citizens,
Nigeria residents
and
people acquainted with Nigeria
believed he would achieve it.
as it turned out,
he neither achieved this within 6 (six ) months
nor
in/at any length of time thereafter
until the happenstance of his death
( .. which event at the time generated rumours in Nigeria
rumouring his death was unusual? and maybe an assassination?? )
it may be interesting to note the
beer parlour beer-drunken influenced perception? that
the His Excellency, Barrister Bola Ige period
as Federal Minister in charge of Electricity and Power
( and therefore also
the period of
the Civilian Democratically Elected Presidency of
His Excellency Chief General [rtd] Olusegun Obasanjo )
was
.. counting from
the time of
the 1979 Civilian Democratically Elected Presidency of
His Excellency Alhaji Shehu Shagari ..
the second? time
that
an achiever / a group of achievers / a team of achievers ▼▼
( … please note that
without equivocation
His Excellency, Chief Obasanjo himself is quite an achiever in his own right
being among many honours
an author
and
a past Military Head of State of the Federal Republic of Nigeria … )
▼▼ had set about to sort out the Electricity Issue in Nigeria finitely
and
had not achieved “fantastic high result in flying colours”??.
according to
beer parlour beer-drunken influenced perception?
the other time and the previous time
had been
the period of
His Excellency General Sanni Abacha ( late i.e deceased ) as
Head State of the Federal Republic of Nigeria
in which period
according to rumours
some entities
engaged in
either importing generator sets into Nigeria
or selling generator sets in Nigeria
or both
had on perceiving the seriousness with which
the General Sanni Abacha Government of Nigeria was
pursuing the matter of the Electricity challenge in Nigeria
predicted that his government would solve the Nigeria Electricity problem
and
this would mean that there would be no need or not much need for their generator sets
which would in turn mean a down-turn in their own business and business revenue
and had therefore
according to rumours
either
left the generator sets business completely
or
left the Electricity related business completely
or
switched to importing and/or selling Transformers instead of Generators.
His Excellency, General Sanni Abacha was
without equivocation
quite an achiever in Nigeria.
it is rumoured that
his Government pegged the Naira,
which had been in a free-fall? against the US Dollar
exchanging at about N125 = $1
at the period before he assumed office as Head of State of the Federal Republic of Nigeria
to
N85 = $1
as the parallel market exchange rate
i.e
as the white market exchange rate
i.e
as the black market exchange rate
which action is rumoured to have
brought
stability and relief to
the Nigeria business environment
as
entities in business accepted this figure as
the real market rate
the real rate ▼▼
( … as distinct … according to rumours … from the Central Bank of Nigeria [ CBN ] rate
which was rumoured to be lower
and also rumored to be difficult for the larger generality to access … )
▼▼ and
adopted it as the general wide-spread standard
on which business transactions were based and done.
it had been the hope of many before the happenstance of
the death of His Excellency General Sanni Abacha that
his Government may be able to further improve the fortunes of the Naira to
the pre-1989 value of about N1 = $1
before the
■ Structural Adjustment Programme ( SAP ),
■ devaluation of the Naira,
■ First Tier foreign exchange market,
■ Second Tier foreign exchange market,
■ etc
linked to the Government of
His Excellency, General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida,
Military President of
the Federal Republic of Nigeria ( 1985 – 1993 )
moving closer to date 21 September, 2023
there have/had been over the years
since the period
Nigeria began having issues with it’s Petroleum Refineries
and
stopped? refining Crude Oil here in Nigeria
and
began instead
to ferry Crude Oil abroad for refining
and
import the refined gasoline/petrol, etc
back
into Nigeria
the averments by acclaimed authorities in
finance,
banking,
economics
and
related monetary areas
and
management
and related areas
that the fuel subsidy policy and practice of the Nigeria Governments
was .. is?? .. an undue drain on the resources of the Federal Republic of Nigeria
and should, in the interest of Nigeria, be stopped.
it was probably this perception that
led the Civilian Democratically Elected Government of
His Excellency, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan
.. himself an acclaimed Ph.D Economics holder ..
to
announce on January 1, 2012 ( i.e 2023 – 2011 = 12 years ago )
the removal of Petroleum Subsidy.
this announcement,
if my memory serves correctly,
was met with an industrial action by
the very powerful
Nigeria Labour Congress ( NLC )
and
affiliated trade unions
and
simillar bodies.
it was probably
an act of wisdom
geared at
avoiding such upheaval that had
advised
the General Sanni Abacha Government in circa 1993? .. 1994? to
soft pedal on
the rumoured immediate, total, complete and permanent removal of fuel subsidy
which according to rumours
his Government intended to effect
and instead go for a
gradual phased removal of fuel subsidy over time.
the ruling Government of
His Excellency, President ( Asiwaju ) ( Alhaji ) Bola Akhmed Tinubu
seems to be in agreement with
the averments by acclaimed authorities
in
finance,
banking,
economics
and
related monetary areas
and in
management
and related areas
over the years
that the fuel subsidy policy and practice of the Nigeria Governments
was .. is?? .. an undue drain on the resources of the Federal Republic of Nigeria
and should, in the interest of Nigeria, be stopped.
it may be this agreement with this advisory that
informed this Government to remove the fuel subsidy totally upon assuming office.
the
■ dexterity,
■ diplomatic range,
■ vast extensive reach,
■ negotiations mastery,
■ deep understanding of Nigeria and Nigeria issues,
■ real-life approach to achieving desired results within the reality of the Nigeria environment,
■ etc
of this Government
has been show-cased thus far
on this matter
to the extent that
it has thus far
been able to avert complete, comprehensive, total industrial action
from and by
the very powerful
Nigeria Labour Congress ( NLC ),
Trade Union Congess ( TUC ),
Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria ( PMAN ),
etc
in response to this removal of fuel subsidy.
however, there seems to be an issue.
in all their averments,
the acclaimed authorities and experts
in
finance,
banking,
economics
and
related monetary areas
and in
management
and related areas
did not tell Nigeria and Nigerians
IN THE PUBLIC SPACE
that when/if the fuel subsidy is removed
the
pump price of gasoline would
not be stable
at one figure
thus causing? Nigeria and Nigerians to guess and/or assume that
for example
removal of fuel subsidy
would have
an attendant / accompanying gasoline/petrol pump price stability effect ▼▼
( .. as has historically been the case in Nigeria
which has
historically had
generally stable gasoline / petrol pump prices
in the years before the introduction of fuel subsidy in Nigeria
and
during the years when Nigeria practiced fuel subsidy .. )
▼▼ and therefore a Nigeria Economy stabilizing effect
.. though accompanied by a linked increase in the prices/costs of goods and services
i.e
though accompanied by a naturally attendant inflation in the Nigeria Economy
i e
though accompanied by an attendant resulting increase in the cost of living ..
as for example
gasoline/petrol pump price would increase
from say circa N100 a litre to circa N670 a litre
and remain there
thus requiring
an adjustment from Nigerians
to the increased cost of living,
the endurance of which by Nigerians
from
the very instance of fuel subsidy removal onwards
and
no matter the attendant pains and/or suffering(s), if any,
and also
no matter how long/how many years the attendant pains and/or suffering(s) last,
would ultimately
be for the good of all Nigerians
and future generations of Nigerians.
Rihanna nm,
according to rumours,
there seems to be an emergent reality
.. and an emerging reality ..
that seems to be
at variance
from projections
as the pump price of petrol has according to rumours seemingly not stabilized ?
… though it has clearly increased highly
rising
from N189 per litre before the fuel subsidy removal to N617 per litre after the fuel subsidy removal.
Rihanna ornyeh artuh nm ( onye atu nm ), let’s put this point simply like this :
if an item
say
Rihanna Perfume
costs N100 a bottle
and
the price goes up
by anywhere
between N1 to N9 i.e
between 1% to 9%
what you have is
Single Digit Inflation.
if the price of the Rihanna Perfume goes up
by anywhere
between N10 to N99 i.e
between 10% to 99%
what you have is
Double Digit Inflation.
if the price of the Rihanna Perfume goes up
by anywhere
between N100 to N200? i.e
between 100% to 200%?
what you have is
Triple Digit Inflation.
Riri ohbee nm,
when the price of the Rihanna Perfume
goes up
by a full 100% increase
from N100 to N200
i.e ( N100 + N100 = N200 )
you have what may be described
for our own purposes
as
“one full cycle 100% triple digit inflation from the original N100 cost”
and
when the price of the Rihanna Perfume
goes up
by a further additional full 100% increase
from N100 to N300
i.e ( N100 + N100 + 100 = N300 )
which is a 200%? increase
from the original N100 price
you have what may be described
for our own purposes
as
“two full cycle 100% triple digit inflation from the original N100 cost”
or
“double full cycle 100% triple digit inflation from the original N100 cost”
or
“multiple i.e more than 1 full cycle 100% triple digit inflation from the original N100 cost”
Rihanna baby,
in the instance at hand
by the time the pump price of gasoline
went up from N189 per litre
by a full 100% increase
to N189 + N189= N378
you had
Triple Digit Inflation
and
what may be described
for our own purposes
as
“one full cycle 100% triple digit inflation from the original N189 per litre cost”
so by the time
the pump price of gasoline
went up from N189 per litre
by a further full 100% increase
to
N189 + N189 + N189 =
N378 + N189 =
N567
you had
what may be described
for our own purposes
as
“two full cycle 100% triple digit inflation from the original N189 cost”
or
“double full cycle 100% triple digit inflation from the original N189 cost”
or
“multiple i.e more than 1 full cycle 100% triple digit inflation from the original N189 cost”
Rihanna babe,
if my memory serves correctly,
the pump price of petrol
rose in one fell swoop
from N189 to N520 per litre
which is
any which way you look at it
both
Triple Digit Inflation
and
for own purposes
” at least one full cycle 100% triple digit inflation from the original N189 cost”
Rihanna nnkeh nm ohfoo sorr-sorr
Rihanna nkem ofu soso
at a pump selling price of N617
which is higher than
3 x N189 ( the original price ) = N567
you have
any which way you look at it
both
Triple Digit Inflation
and
for own purposes
” multiple i.e more than one 100% triple digit inflation from the original N189 cost”
if you look at those figures in percentages,
you will see that
the increase in price there
i.e the inflation in/of cost there
is actually an increase/inflation of
617/189 x 100 = 326.45%
or if you will
(617 – 189)/189 x 100 = 226.45%
Rihanna nm,
as we need not bother ourselves here
with
matters of detail
such as
■ whether or not
a 1% increase in the cost of goods
i.e
a 1% inflation in the cost of goods
is a
lower end
lower level
lower scale
Single Digit Inflation
■ whether or not
a 9% increase in the cost of goods
i.e
a 9% inflation in the cost of goods
is a/an
upper end
higher level
higher scale
Single Digit Inflation
■ whether or not
a 10% increase in the cost of goods
i.e
a 10% inflation in the cost of goods
is a
lower end
lower level
lower scale
Double Digit Inflation
■ whether or not
a 99% increase in the cost of goods
i.e
a 99% inflation in the cost of goods
is a/an
upper end
higher level
higher scale
Double Digit Inflation
■ whether or not
a 100% increase in the cost of goods
i.e
a 100% inflation in the cost of goods
is a
lower end
lower level
lower scale
Triple Digit Inflation
■ whether or not
a 999% increase in the cost of goods
i.e
a 999% inflation in the cost of goods
is a/an
upper end
higher level
higher scale
Triple Digit Inflation
as
could happen for instance if and/or when
the price of the Rihanna Perfume
goes up
by a full 100% increase 9 times
thus
N100 + N100 + N100 + N100 + N100 + N100
+ N100 + N100 + N100 + N100 =
N100 + N900 =
N1000
and
then increases by N99
to sell at
N1000 + N 99 = N1099
■ whether or not an increase in the cost of goods i.e an upwards inflationary trend of more than 5% is a worrisome indicator in an economy
■ whether or not an increase in the cost of a universally utilized good/commodity or service in an economy
e.g
▼ petrol/gasoline
▼ electricity
will ultimately result in
a linked increase in the costs of virtually all other goods and services in that economy
as service providers and product vendors in that economy,
in the interest of their own business survival,
adjust the costs of their products and services to
accommodate for their own expenditure regarding
the now higher costing universally utilized good/commodity or service
let’s move forward a bit from here
and
to keep it simple
let’s roll like this :
Rihanna eefeh artuh nm ( ifeatu nm ),
according to rumours
the pump price of petrol ( currently pegged at N617 per litre)
is being held in place by strong behind-the-scenes interventions of Government
( .. and thus according to rumours
the pump price of petrol which is currently pegged at N617 per litre
is therefore being held in place by
some sort of behind-the-scenes re-introduction of some degree of fuel subsidy by Government .. )
which wants to prevent further upwards inflationary spiral of the costs of goods and services in the Nigeria Economy
which is likely? to be the case
if the pump price of gasoline/petrol
fluctuates █upwards with
▲ a ( continuing? ) downwards decrease of the value of the Naira comparative to the US Dollar,
▲ an/[a] ( continuing? ) upwards? increase in Naira terms in the cost of importation of Petroleum Products into Nigeria
▲ ( .. and probably also an/a [ continuing? ] upwards? increase in the cost? of export of the Crude Oil for refining abroad in the first instance??? )
and
▲ an increase / increases in the cost of one barrel of oil in the world market,
[ babe, this particular factor should not worry us since we own the oil unless after refining it abroad we buy it back from the refiner or whoever the refiner has sold it to.
as a matter of fact,
ordinarily,
this factor should be to our advantage
since for example
if we export/ferry 100 barrels to England
and
England refines 20 barrels for us to use here in Nigeria
and
we sell 80 barrels at an increased price
we have made a further profit
on those 80 barrels of crude oil sold
sometimes though it is not easy for the ordinary person to understand how Oil and Gas works in Nigeria ]
▲ etc ??
all told,
Rihanna nm,
the scenario is essentially
an interesting conundrum
which advises a need
to have
a functional and practical understanding
of
■ real life economics
■ real life finance
■ real life dynamics of a National Economy
which
in combination with
■ soundness in theoretical knowledge
i e
■ theoretical depth
may
seemingly be required by
the managers of the Nigeria Economy
given the perceived economic reality on ground pertaining to the Nigeria Economy as at date September 2023
in order to avert / prevent
■ further increase in the prices/costs of goods and services
i.e
■ further inflation in the Nigeria Economy
i e
■ further increase in the cost of living
i.e
■ further upwards inflationary spiral / spiralling of the costs of goods and services in the Nigeria Economy
[ TO BE CONTINUED ]
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